Devils in MLB: Give it to the Jockey
Could an unlikely former Sun Devil win the American League Most Valuable Player Award? We think so.
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Dustin Pedroia got things going for the Boston Red Sox Tuesday night, lacing a first-inning single off Tampa Bay Rays ace Scott Kazmir. It was no big surprise — Pedroia owns Kazmir, entering the game with a .619 average against him with two doubles, a triple and a home run.
But teammate Kevin Youkilis promptly doubled Pedroia home, which continued a confounding debate in Boston — who is the MVP of the American League, and who is the MVP of the Red Sox?
Our vote here goes for “the jockey,” as Ozzie Guillen recently referred to the diminutive Pedroia.
Pedroia entered the second half of the season as a victim of what you could call David Wright Syndrome. Wright, a known slow starter who posts his lowest career batting average and slugging percentage in the month of April, found himself off voters’ radars in 2007 — and perhaps again this year — despite fantastic numbers in the second half for a contender.
Early last year, Pedroia looked like he might be losing his job despite unwavering support from Boston GM Theo Epstein. He was batting his weight so to speak, hitting .182 with three extra-base hits in April.
This year, April was fine, but May was weak, batting .260 with a lousy .669 OPS.
But while MVP trophies can often be lost in April and May (just ask Carlos Delgado), something clicked around that point for Pedroia. While the baseball world seems to have realized that Pedroia is on some kind of tear, they might not know just how devastating of an offensive force he’s been.
From June 14 to Sept. 8 — that’s 72 games, nearly half a baseball season — Pedroia has batted an absurd .388 with a .431 on-base percentage, 1.046 OPS and 43 extra-base hits. Thirteen of those have been home runs.
None of the other serious contenders can significantly beat those numbers, not Youkilis (1.004 OPS, 37 extra-base hits), Justin Morneau (.955 OPS, 41 extra-base hits), Joe Mauer (.871 OPS, 18 extra-base hits) or the injured Carlos Quentin (1.014 OPS, 35 extra-base hits), who had a fine second half himself.
Pedroia has a good chance to win the AL batting title, he’s been an offensive monster for the last half of the season and he plays a premium defensive position exceptionally well.
It could be a fun winter collecting hardware for Pedroia. The batting crown, perhaps another World Series ring, a Gold Glove maybe, and the jewel he so greatly deserves — the Most Valuable Player award.
Extra Innings
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier was named National League Player of the Week after batting .650 with three doubles, a triple and two home runs. He then proceeded to continue crushing the Arizona Diamondbacks’ dreams with four RBI in last night’s win … Sacramento River Cats outfielder Travis Buck is playing in the Pacific Coast League Championship Series, which started Tuesday … Second base prospect Jake Elmore was named a Pioneer League (Rookie) postseason all star.
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While agree with your analysis, Greg, I have to point out that few people would refer to second base as a “premium defensive position.”
The Bill James defensive spectrum (http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/bbd-bj1.html), which goes from easiest to hardest to play:
1. Designated hitter
2. First baseman
3. Left fielder
4. Right fielder
5. Third baseman
6. Center fielder
7. Second baseman
8. Shortstop
9. Catcher
10. Pitcher
You can take pitcher (and, to some degree, catcher) off of the list. No position player moves to pitcher because of defensive ability, they’d only do it because they can’t hit. And very few people are capable of moving to catcher, for many reasons.
But the basis of this is to show a progression a baseball player can make, physically, as their career moves along. If you start at the top of this spectrum (Billy Butler) or toward the top (Prince Fielder) you’re in trouble. A guy who is only physically capable of playing the top position or two will never be able to play the ones below it, or certainly not play them well.
Now, if you start your career toward the bottom (Robin Yount), you can move up as you get older/injured/whatever. A pretty good example of this is everyone’s favorite overhyped Yankee, Derek Jeter. He really hasn’t played shotstop well, defensively, in several years. And he’d probably be a downgrade, even from Robinson Cano, at second. But centerfield? Jeter would probably make an excellent center fielder as his career ambles on. If only he’d be willing to move.
Anyway, no offense SplishSplash, but I’ll take it as expected that a guy who overvalues pitcher wins would undervalue a second baseman’s defensive premium.
One easy way to understand defensive premium is to look at offensive numbers. The positions with sustained lack of offensive success (catcher, shortstop, second base) have that for one very obvious reason — a team can withstand lesser offensive production from a position if it’s important to retain a specifically high level of defensive performance there.
Who said I overvalue pitcher wins. I’m very much in agreement that those mean nothing. Take Roger Clemens in 2005 (steroids aside) who had a 1.87 ERA and only went 13-8.
And I would tend to disagree with Bill James’ order in a few spots. Either way, that is quite possibly the longest response comment in the history of EFTB.com
Sabermatricians must protect their honor to the death!
Lightening bolt! Lightening bolt!
[...] Up next for Pedroia could be the AL MVP Award, which will be handed out next week. (As we wrote back in September, we think they should give it to the jockey.) [...]
[...] Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was named the American League Most Valuable Player on Tuesday, receiving 16 of 28 possible first-place votes. (Of course, we predicted this back in September.) [...]