As we head into the stretch run of the Pac-10 season, we’re taking a moment to handicap the race. Yes, USC’s piece of the pie is very large. Yes, Arizona’s piece of the pie is pink. We don’t like Arizona. Keep reading to see why the pie looks the way it does.

Odds of Winning the Pac-10 Title

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The manic-depressive Pac-10 season took a few more interesting turns this past weekend. Arizona’s upset of Cal threw another wrench into the standings, and at the sort-of halfway point in the Pac-10 season we’re trying to figure how this whole thing might shake out.

The only thing we can be sure of (we think) is that Washington and Washington State will combine to win just one Pac 10 game (against each other, of course). If we work under that assumption, it’s still an eight-team race. Southern California, Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona and Cal all have one conference loss. Arizona State, Stanford and UCLA each have two.

For obvious reasons – talent and recent history – you have to consider USC the favorite. But, the Trojans have to visit Tucson this week, host Cal and visit Stanford before finally going across town for the finale at UCLA. If you like the recent history argument here, USC will lose another game in their five remaining Pac-10 tilts. It’s also likely that USC will win the conference with two losses.

All that taken into account, we give the Trojans a 45 percent chance to win the Pac-10.

For our Sun Devils, they have to win games this week vs. Oregon and then at Oregon State to have a chance (likely for a share of the title). If they lose either of these games, they would lose any head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon/Oregon State, Cal and USC if they all finished with the same Pac-10 record – and that would be a three-loss or worse record.

Overall, we put the Devils chances at winning the Pac-10 title at 5 percent. They would need to run the table and get a lot of help. Not good.

As for Stanford and UCLA, we’re giving each a 1 percent chance to pull out a share of a Pac 10 title this year. UCLA still has Cal and ASU on the road, plus Oregon State and USC at home. Stanford only has four Pac-10 games left, but they would have to win all four. That includes visits to Oregon and Cal, plus a home game with the Trojans.

So that leaves us with Oregon, Oregon State, Cal and Arizona. For those of you keeping score at home, there’s only 43 percent of the pie left.

The clear favorite among those four is Oregon State. Thanks to beating USC they own the tiebreaker, and that could make all the difference. Oregon State also has the most favorable schedule left of any Pac-10 team. They face in order ASU, at UCLA, Cal, at Arizona, and Oregon. We say that’s good for a 25 percent shot.

Cal and Oregon each have a 10 percent shot at winning the title. Cal has USC and Oregon State on the road in consecutive weeks, and Oregon has to go to ASU, Cal and Oregon State. On top of all that, the Ducks would lose the tiebreaker with USC since they already lost.

That leaves us with Arizona. They have never gone to a Rose Bowl. They ain’t going to start now. In the interest of making the numbers add up, we’ll throw the Cats a bone (insert your own joke here!). They have a 3 percent chance at their very first Pac-10 conference title.

What’s Your Take, Sun Devils?
Care to quibble with our mathematics? If so, do it in the comments below.

New to Echo from the Buttes? Don’t miss:
Our thoughts on Rudy Carpenter getting his due against Cal.
Our debate on Michael Crow’s campaign to supersize ASU.
Our celebration of Mill Avenue’s top 10 ranking.

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